How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them

Walter begins Chapter 1 by describing the experience of Noor, who was a high school student in Baghdad, Iraq, in 2003 when US forces first attacked her country. Prior to the invasion, Saddam Hussein, a brutal dictator, ruled Iraq. Under Saddam’s reign, many Iraqis were poor and lived in fear since they were unable to publicly criticize their government or discuss politics.

Like many other Iraqis, Noor and her family hoped the US invasion represented a critical turning point for Iraq. They believed that the Americans would help institute democratic reforms. Unfortunately, Noor and other Iraqis were wrong: The Americans worsened religious and ethnic factionalism in the country, which led to a civil war.

Walter suggests that two key decisions by US forces in 2003 made this factionalism worse. The first was outlawing Saddam’s political party (known as the Baath Party) and permanently removing all its members, who were primarily Sunni Muslim, from political office. The second was sending Iraqi soldiers home, many of whom were also Sunni Muslim. By doing so, Americans left a power vacuum, which Shia Muslims—whom Saddam intentionally barred from political power—tried to occupy.

Sunni Muslims worried that Shia Muslims would turn on them if they took control of the government to exact revenge for Saddam’s brutal reign.