How to Avoid a Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have and the Breakthroughs We Need

How to Avoid a Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have and the Breakthroughs We Need (published in 2021) is a nonfiction book by Bill Gates, the cofounder of Microsoft. Gates is a founding member of Breakthrough Energy, an organization of private investors who first came together in 2015 at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris to support the goal of fighting climate change. He was also a leader of the Global Commission on Adaptation, which studied ways to respond to the effects of climate change.

Gates writes that the book is a result of his work with the Gates Foundation, which he cofounded with his former wife, Melinda French Gates. During his travels, he saw firsthand the significant role of electricity in improving people’s lives. As he learned more about the topic, he saw how it intertwines with climate change and became more passionate about fighting this phenomenon. This book is his effort to not only share information about climate change but also map out a plan for avoiding the worst disasters it causes.

Summary

The Introduction (“51 Billion to Zero”) sets out the book’s main thesis: The world currently emits 51 billion tons of greenhouse gases a year, and we must get that number to zero. In addition, Gates talks about his journey in learning about climate change. Chapter 1 (“Why Zero?”) explains why it’s necessary to not just reduce greenhouse gas emissions but get to zero. Gates specifies that realistically this goal must be “net zero” emissions, in which we still emit some carbon but then remove it from the atmosphere.

In Chapter 2 (“This Will Be Hard”), Gates outlines the difficulty of getting to net zero. Challenges include our reliance on fossil fuels for a vast range of affordable solutions (and big-industry’s resistance to change), the lack of time to act (and convince enough people of the imperative’s urgency), and massive growing pains. Chapter 3 (“Five Questions to Ask in Any Climate Conversation”) puts the situation into context, as Gates outlines five questions people can ask to help understand the statistics and have informed discussions about climate change. These questions relate to quantifying percentages of total emissions, identifying emission sources, calculating power needs, determining the physical requirements for various solutions, and calculating costs.

Chapters 4 through 8 (“How We Plug In,” “How We Make Things,” “How We Grow Things,” “How We Get Around,” and “How We Keep Cool and Stay Warm”) examine the five categories of activities that create the most greenhouse gases, how we might get each of them to zero emissions, and how much that will cost. The pattern is the same in each chapter: an analysis of how the activity creates greenhouse gases, the current and evolving technology that can help cut emissions, and the associated Green Premiums (the costs that exceed those of non-green solutions). As an example of a Green Premium, if a gallon of gasoline costs $3.00 and a gallon of biofuel costs $5.00, the Green Premium is $2.00.

In Chapter 9 (“Adapting to a Warmer World”), Gates switches from the book’s overarching topic—fighting climate change—to looking at how we must adapt to its effects as we work toward the goal of zero emissions. He summarizes adaptation as risk reduction before events, emergency services during them, and recovery after them. Chapters 10 and 11 (“Why Government Policies Matter” and “A Plan for Getting to Zero”) focus on government policies. Gates reviews past policies and their effectiveness, explains why governance and policies are important, and outlines a specific plan for using policies to get to net zero emissions.

Chapter 12 (“What Each of Us Can Do”) examines the steps that individuals (whether as citizens, consumers, or employers/employees) can take to help get to zero. As one might expect, they include choosing green home energy plans and products and adopting green business policies and practices for cleaner, more efficient buildings and fleets. More importantly, we must demand that world leaders work together, focusing on facts, to address political barriers to change. A brief Afterword (“Climate Change and COVID-19”) compares climate change to COVID-19, noting the parallels in the fights against them. Gates concludes optimistically with his belief that we can successfully meet the challenge of climate change.